World
U.S Kills Top Iranian Military Leader in Airstrike
On Thursday night, the Pentagon announced that the United States killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s paramilitary forces, in an airstrike in Iraq “at the direction of the President.”
The strike that took out Suleimani also reportedly killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy militia in Iraq that has repeatedly attacked US and allied forces and recently launched rockets at a US military base. Those attacks killed an American contractor, which led the United States to respond and kill 25 operatives in attacks in Iraq and Syria. In separate operations, US forces have also captured and arrested leaders of other important Iraqi militias with close ties to Iran.
The killing of Suleimani, the long-time head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) is likely to prove a watershed in Washington’s relations with Iraq and Iran and will substantially affect the overall US position in the Middle East. The blowback may be huge, and much depends on how well prepared the United States is for Iran’s response and that of its many proxies in the Middle East.
Based on the Trump administration’s record in the region, there is reason to be worried.
It’s hard to overstate Suleimani’s influence. Because Iran’s conventional forces are weak, Tehran often works through militias, terrorist groups, and other proxies to advance its interests abroad. The IRGC takes the lead for many of these operations. In Iraq, and in other countries where Iran plays both a military and political role — such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, as well as with the Palestinians — the IRGC is often the dominant actor in Iran’s foreign policy, or at least an important voice.
In April, the Trump administration took the unusual step of officially designating the IRGC as a terrorist group even though it is an arm of the Iranian state, and thus not a non-state actor, unlike most of the entities on the US list of terrorist organizations.
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Suleimani has been the architect of many of Iran’s most contentious foreign policy issues, and he and the IRGC-QF are responsible for the deaths of many Americans.
The Quds Force, with perhaps between 10,000 and 20,000 fighters in its organization, provides training, weapons, organizational guidance, and other support to a range of pro-Iran groups.
The IRGC, with the Quds Force in the lead, is the key Iranian liaison with the Lebanese Hezbollah, the strongest paramilitary organization in Lebanon — and one that has attacked Israel and the US at Iran’s behest. The Quds Force also works with Palestinian terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, among other nefarious organizations in other countries. When the United States clashed with pro-Iran forces in Iraq, the Quds Force made them far more deadly, providing them after 2005 with sophisticated explosives that could penetrate US armored vehicles, killing almost 200 Americans.
Having been at the helm of the Quds Force since 1998, Suleimani has cultivated a power network in Iran itself and through the IRGC’s many proxies. He is a symbol of Iran’s power, prestige, and reach.
Iran’s response to Suleimani’s killing will be serious, and unpredictable
With Suleimani’s death, there will be hell to pay — and because of Quds Force’s reach, Iran will have multiple theaters in which to attack the United States.
Attacks on US forces and facilities in Iraq are particularly likely. Tehran has spent over 15 years building up extensive networks among militia groups and politicians in Iraq. Earlier this week, before Suleimani’s death, Iran was able to rapidly mobilize local proxies to violently demonstrate at the US Embassy in Baghdad, creating a grave security risk to personnel there, even as Tehran’s local allies avoided killing more Americans. Now the gloves are likely to come off.
In the strike that killed Suleimani, the United States also reportedly took out the head of the pro-Iran militia Kataib Hezbollah, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and several other senior pro-Iran figures in Iraq. Kataib Hezbollah was responsible for numerous attacks on US and Iraqi forces, often at Iran’s behest. This, too, will not go unpunished: In addition to wanting to please Iran, pro-Iran militias in Iraq will be angered by al-Muhandis’s death and the arrests of their leaders and eager to avenge them.
Suliemani’s killing is only likely to strengthen Iran’s hand, politically
Many Iraqi politicians, by necessity and in some cases by choice, have close ties to Iran, and pressure will grow to oust US forces from the country. If there is a back-and-forth between the United States and Iran, it is simply the case that Iran has more allies and more influence there, and many Iraqi leaders are likely to bow to Iranian pressure.
US military forces in Afghanistan and Syria are also at risk, though both are already well-defended due to threats from ISIS, the Taliban, and other dangerous groups. The IRGC and its proxies may also strike at official US embassies and other government-related targets. In 1983, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah blew up the US Embassy in Beirut as well as the Marine barracks there, killing 220 Marines, and dozens of other Americans. Civilians too may be in the crosshairs. Some of Iran’s proxies lack the skill to strike at well-defended official targets, so Tehran may also seek to send a broader message in order to intimidate the United States.
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Although Iran is likely to strike back, the scale and scope of its response are hard to predict. Hardliners, there will call for making the United States pay for Suleimani’s death. In addition, a conflict with the United States may prove a useful way for the regime to deflect attention from Iran’s declining economy and the massive protests that have rocked the country.
However, Iran has long recognized its military weakness compared to the United States, and its leaders know that it can only lose if there is an all-out confrontation. In the many years of US-Iran confrontations, Iran has provoked Washington with terrorist attacks and by supporting anti-US proxies but also tried to back down when things looked as if they might get out of control. It is not clear, however, if the same script applies after the killing of a key figure like Suleimani.
Is the Trump administration prepared for the consequences of its escalation?
Much depends on how prepared the United States is for the inevitable Iranian response. Deliberative thinking is not a strong suit of the Trump administration, and it is easy to focus on the immediate gratification that comes from killing an archenemy responsible for many American and allied deaths than thinking through the long-term implications of the strike.
What the United States most needs is its allies. They are necessary to deter Iran, support further military operations against it if deterrence fails, help guard US facilities, and otherwise share the burden. Unfortunately, the Trump administration has spurned many traditional allies, thumbing its nose at NATO, Australia, and others.
In the Middle East, the administration refused to retaliate after Iran attacked a Saudi oil facility, a traditional red line, sending a message that the Kingdom was on its own for its security. It has also stood by as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE have worked at cross-purposes in countries like Syria and Libya, rather than trying to create a common position that would increase US influence and bargaining power in conflict with Iran. It is unclear if allies will now rally to Washington’s banner, and even if they do they may not be eager to stand by the United States.
President Trump himself has made no secret of his desire to end the US military presence in the Middle East. “We’re getting out. Let someone else fight over this long blood-stained sand. The job of our military is not to police the world,” he declared.
By killing Suleimani, however, the United States is likely to face a dilemma. It can continue to stay in the Middle East with relatively limited force deployments in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan and thus be vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Or the United States can further drawdown in the face of an Iranian threat and keep its forces isolated, weakening its influence and handing Iran more power in the region.
The Suleimani killing and the targeting of pro-Iranian figures in Iraq is likely to be a pivotal moment for the United States in the region. How bloody the aftermath will be, and whether the United States can emerge stronger, will depend on whether the Trump administration can be steadfast, plan for the long term, and work closely with allies. Trump’s Middle East policy so far, however, suggests the opposite is more likely. In the end, Suleimani’s death may prove a hollow and short-lived victory.
Daniel Byman is a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. Follow him on Twitter: @dbyman.
U.S. Attorney General William Barr has finally succumbed to pressure from President Donald Trump and some Republican leaders alleging voting fraud in the 3 November US election, by ordering a probe.
In a letter to federal prosecutors on Monday, he authorised them to pursue investigations into “substantial allegations of voting and vote tabulation irregularities,” while urging them not to chase “fanciful or far-fetched” claims.
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The letter to prosecutors, which was seen by Reuters, marked the first time Barr addressed President Donald Trump’s repeated and unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud since last week’s election won by Democrat Joe Biden.
It came several hours after Barr met with Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who earlier on Monday said Trump was well within his rights to look into charges of “irregularities” in last week’s election.
“I authorize you to pursue substantial allegations of voting and vote tabulation irregularities prior to the certification of elections in your jurisdictions in certain cases, as I have already done in specific instances,” Barr wrote in the letter to federal prosecutors and the FBI.
President Trump and his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani have repeatedly made broad allegations of voter fraud in a number of states, but have not provided evidence for their claims.
Trump has filed lawsuits in a number of states that he either lost to former Vice President Joe Biden or is trailing in the vote count as the final ballots are tallied.
Biden secured his electoral college victory over Trump in the 2020 election with his projected win in Pennsylvania and Nevada on Saturday.
Biden is leading Trump in Arizona and Georgia, states that he will have flipped Democratic if he’s ultimately victorious in them.
The United Nations (UN) has blamed recent widespread public protests in various countries, including Nigeria, on the harsh socio-economic effects of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic the Nation reports.
Deputy Secretary-General of the UN Amina Mohammed stated this on Monday after separate meetings with President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.
The UN Executive, who was responding to a question on the global body’s stand on the #EndSARS protest in Nigeria, however lauded the nation’s response to the demands of the protesters, describing it as the quickest so far.
According to Mrs. Mohammed, the lessons learnt from Nigeria’s response to the protests are part of what would be taken into the future on how to manage conflict situations.
She noted that the demands of the protesters and the steps now being taken by the Nigerian government are the building blocks to the process of needed reforms for security as well as rebuild trust between government and the people.
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“The UN stance is clear, like the UN Secretary General had said in his speech, we believe everyone has a right to demonstrate peacefully for those issues they want to raise with their government.
“There is a social contract in place between the government and the people and it is important to have that freedom of speech, provided it is done peacefully.
“I think in the case where we heard that lives and property were lost, it was unfortunate and we believe that in addressing the demands that were made by young people, that in fact this is perhaps a lesson we can take into the future and how we engage in such issues.
“I have to say that there are lots of protests around this world that have been exacerbated by COVID because, COVID has left people out of work, left people hopeless because of the socio-economic impact and in many of those protests, we have not seen governments turn around in response as quickly as this government did.
“So, the UN’s response to this is that, we must make sure that what happened in this protests we are able to address those issues, those gaps and begin the reform, in fact I will say the transformations that are needed to address many of these outstanding issues and for that we need to engage youths, we need to engage government.
“I think what has been put in place are those building blocs and the support of the UN has been asked to make sure that those convenience can happen and that we can build back trust and have confidence-building measures in order to get to where we need to, where the social contract between government and the people is firm and trustworthy and is working for the benefits of the Nigerian people”, she said.
She expressed regrets over the break down of the protests into chaos, which had led to the loss of lives and destruction of property.
“We did raise while we were with Mr. President the issue around the recent challenges of ENDSARS protests that happened in the country. It was of course one that the Secretary-General, we all alarmed and of course support the country in trying to get back on track.
“Young people and their demands for social justice, governance are all legitimate ones and must be done peacefully. But we were all disturbed by the damage level, loss of lives and we continue to condole with those families who suffer those loses.
“Today was one in which we encourage efforts that are being made by government to that the process of engaging with the demands that have been made by the young people. It’s a start on that journey of reforms that are needed in the security sector, but also root causes to the issues that are happening today, which is about investing in development”, she said.
She said the global body would continue partner the Nigerian government, disclosing the launch of a new support programme; UN Plus Offer, which is targeted at the nation’s post-COVID-19 plan, the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP).
“We look forward to continuing our partnership with the government of Nigeria. We are happy today to launch the UN Plus Offer, which has to do again with supporting Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) over the next two years so that we can respond a little bit better.”
Peru’s Congress voted to oust President Martín Vizcarra on Monday in an impeachment trial over corruption allegations, the second effort by lawmakers to remove him in a matter of months PM NEWS reports
The opposition-dominated Congress put forward 105 votes to oust the centrist leader over accusations that as a governor he accepted bribes from companies that won public works contracts.
The 105 votes far exceeded the 87-vote threshold out of 130 needed to remove him from office. There were 19 votes against his ouster and four abstentions.
Vizcarra has rejected the corruption allegations as “baseless” and “false.”
He warned of “unpredictable consequences” earlier on Monday if lawmakers impeached him just months ahead of the April 11 presidential election, in which he is not eligible to run.
His removal from office plunges the world’s No. 2 copper producer into political turmoil as it looks to recover from an economic recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.
Vizcarra, 57, lacked a party in the fragmented Congress, and had a tense relationship with lawmakers, with whom he frequently locked horns over his anti-graft agenda.
He dissolved Congress last year after a long-running standoff, a move that prompted criticism by right-wing lawmakers.
Vizcarra survived a first ouster attempt in September in a separate impeachment trial over alleged links to a case of irregular government contracts with a little-known singer. Only 32 in the chamber voted in favor of his ouster in that vote.
In November, however, lawmakers voted to move forward with a new impeachment trial over accusations that Vizcarra accepted bribes from companies that won public works contracts when he was the governor of the southern region of Moquegua..
Vizcarra’s removal could usher in a period of political tensions and uncertainty in the months leading up to elections as Peru is already strained by economic instability, analysts said.
“Political turmoil related to the latest impeachment process and corruption allegations add to deep distrust of the political class ahead of upcoming elections,” international firm Eurasia said in a report earlier on Monday.
The head of Congress, Manuel Merino, an agronomist and businessman who is a member of minority party Popular Action, is expected to assume the presidency on Tuesday and will remain in office until the end of July 2021, when Vizcarra’s term was due to expire
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